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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 001072 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2018 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SOCI EFIN HO
SUBJECT: ALL SET FOR THE KEY HONDURAN PRIMARY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 1064 
     ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 1034 
     ¶C. AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens, reason 1.4 (b & d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary. The primary elections of November 30 are a 
critical event in Honduras.  Our Mission had been intimately 
involved with supporting democracy and the primary election 
process in Honduras for months.  We have worked through our 
Democracy Working Group, in conjunction with the Group of 16 
donor nations and organizations (G-16) and the Organization 
of American States (OAS) to shore up the process.  At the 
request of the OAS, we have committed staff from the Embassy 
community to serve as international observers and we will 
host a control room in the Embassy to report results to 
Washington.  The Elections Tribunal Magistrates gave its 
final readout on the electoral panorama today, and they 
believes that they have put in place the most modern and 
transparent system possible.  All parties agree that it is 
the best system Honduras has ever had.  The threat of a 
teacher's strike has ended and the Ministers of Defense and 
Education have made all the right positive statements. The 
OAS Head of the International Observer Mission, Raul Alconada 
met with the Ambassador to discuss the political situation 
and to review the observation mission.  Alconada conveyed 
concern about President Zelaya,s behind the scenes political 
machinations that seemed to undermine the electoral process. 
The Ambassador stressed that successful primaries would serve 
as a stabilizing element in the political equation.  Looking 
to the actual primaries, it appears that within the National 
Party Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo seems destined to win with a 
substantial margin, but within the Liberal Party, the results 
are too close to call.  End Summary. 
 
Embassy Tegucigalpa Works to Support Democracy 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Embassy Tegucigalpa has worked diligently over the 
past months to support the Honduran primary election process. 
 The Embassy has an active Democracy Working Group that 
brings together several offices and agencies.  This group has 
met throughout the year and in the lead-up to the elections 
went to weekly coordination meetings.   Through our USAID 
mission we have supported the National Democratic Institute 
(NDI) and their mission to organize a system of national 
observers.  USAID has also given technical support to the 
Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), focused on their rapid 
transmission of results system (TREP).  The Embassy team has 
worked with the Group of 16 donor nations and organizations 
(G-16), particularly with the UN Development Program mission, 
by participating fully in the working group on democracy and 
elections, which has supported the National Register of 
Persons in issuing electoral credentials, and also supporting 
the work of the TSE.  In addition, the Embassy has worked 
very closely throughout the process with the Organization of 
American States (OAS), which is in charge of an international 
observer mission.  The OAS has brought in 30 international 
observers from around the world, and the Embassy has offered 
ten members of the Embassy community to bolster this team. 
Embassy observers underwent the official OAS training and 
will be sent to three departments to serve as official 
representatives of the OAS.  Local media put great faith in 
the international observer mission, and most Hondurans 
generally agree that it will help deter fraud at the polling 
stations.  The Embassy will also host a control room in the 
mission that will be open the entire day to report results to 
Washington. 
 
TSE Gives Its Final Read-Out 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) The Ambassador attended a breakfast on November 28 
offered by the TSE so that they could give the G-16 their 
frank appraisal of the situation immediately prior to the 
elections.  The TSE magistrates believe they have put in 
 
TEGUCIGALP 00001072  002 OF 003 
 
 
place the most transparent system they could, and all 
international observers agree that despite its faults, it is 
the best system that has ever been utilized in Honduras.  The 
TSE announced that it expects to deliver preliminary results 
in the presidential races a few hours after the polls close, 
as the presidential ballots are far less complicated than 
those for members of Congress or local councils and 
mayorships.  This early announcement is contingent on the 
TREP system functioning without major problems.  Because 
4,000 TREP officers will be reporting to only 200 operators 
at the TSE's collection center, there could be the 
possibility of problems, but the TSE informed the group that 
the early tests had gone well. 
 
¶4. (C) Originally, the TSE had attempted to contract with a 
local company to laminate the vote results (called "actas"), 
but the company that they had worked with discovered that 
their process could very easily smudge the actas themselves, 
so the TSE decided not to contract them for this service.  In 
response to the raised expectations, some candidates were 
complaining that the actas would now be easier to alter, but 
the TSE pointed out that no country in the world laminates 
their vote results before sending them to a central 
authority, and that this added precaution was not necessary 
to ensure accurate results and evade fraud. 
 
What's Happening on the Local Scene? 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) On the local scene, the teachers who had threatened to 
takeover schools and not allow voters to enter the polling 
stations came to an agreement with the Ministry of Education. 
 President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya told the Ambassador on 
November 21 that the teachers were "his problem" and that he 
would "take care" of it prior to the elections.  In support 
of this positive message, Minister of Defense Aristides Mejia 
came out strongly on November 25 and 26 with statements to 
the effect that the blocking of a polling station was 
considered to be an attempt against Honduras' democracy and 
any violators would be arrested and subject to sentences of 3 
- 10 years.  In addition, Minister of Education Marlon Breve 
also made statements that any teachers who participated would 
be punished.  The Ambassador personally called both Mejia and 
Breve on November 28 to express his appreciation for their 
positive messages. 
 
Message from OAS 
-------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Alconada met with the Ambassador to discuss elections 
concerns and seek USG support on November 28.  He raised his 
concerns over President Zelaya,s call for a constituent 
assembly and other rumors that he might plan to try and 
extend his term.  The Ambassador said that it was our belief 
that the electoral process was a critically important element 
in reaffirming the Honduran people's support for their 
democratic process and would serve as a stabilizing element 
in the political equation.  The Ambassador expressed the hope 
that the Honduran people's exercising of their political 
right to vote would transcend political maneuvering by Zelaya 
and other political actors. The Ambassador mentioned that 
President Zelaya in private and in several public statements 
had given assurances that he was not interested in staying 
beyond his term in office.  He had also been helpful in 
resolving the teacher threats to take over the schools and 
prevent voters from voting. 
 
¶7. (C) In the discussion, the Ambassador also stressed the 
support for the elections given by the Honduran military and 
the major political parties and that while flawed, the 
electoral mechanism was arguably the most transparent ever 
for put together for Honduran primaries.  Both Alconada and 
the Ambassador shared the concern that the closer the results 
the more likely someone would cry foul.  Both agreed to meet 
on Election Day and to stay in close touch in those 
following. 
 
TEGUCIGALP 00001072  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) Things are as organized as they can be, and Honduras 
has the best system in place than it ever has.  This does not 
mean that there will not be irregularities or allegations of 
fraud, or other problems during and following the voting.  In 
the National Party, Lobo has a comfortable lead, with some 
reliable polls showing him with 75 percent of the National 
Party votes.  The race within the Liberal Party is much more 
contentious and tight.  Reliable polling suggests that 
Santos/Mauricio Villeda will win in some departments, 
Micheletti will win in others, and Eduardo Maldonado will 
take Tegucigalpa and possibly even Colon and Atlantida. 
(Note: Reftel B and previous report on Santos' removal from 
the ballot and replacement by substitute Villeda.  End note.) 
 Maldonado's unexpected strength makes the race between 
Santos and Micheletti even tighter than expected. According 
to these polls, the race is still too close to call, although 
other polling shows that Santos, proxy, Mauricio Villeda, 
may be ahead by as much as 15 points. 
 
¶9. (S) Rumors continue on possible attempts by Zelaya to 
continue his term.  Most center on his and his supporters 
call for a constituent assembly, leading to fears that he 
would use such an assembly to extend his term.  However, 
Zelaya told the Ambassador (Reftel A) that he would only seek 
to change the constitution to allow presidents to seek 
reelection after his term.  It would be near impossible for 
Zelaya to arrange for a constituent assembly to extend his 
term after his successor had been elected.  Nevertheless, we 
expect Zelaya to continue to maneuver in order to keep 
himself at the center of events as long as possible. 
LLORENS